A Place Called False Hope
In spite of poll after poll that shows Obama with a healthy lead, not to mention the state-by-state polls which would make it very difficult, at this point, for McCain to overcome a significant electoral vote lead by Obama, conservatives are clinging to whatever shred of good news they can the way rural Americans cling to their guns and their religion.
When Drudge posted a Zogby poll showing a one-point lead for McCain, based on one-day polling, the conservasphere went orgasmic, like Lopez at NRO bellowing about how it’s “still competitive.” Matt sounds almost ecstatic, acting as though Johnny Mac is the comeback kid.
ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error… The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all…
But a more sober reading of the stats, offered by Nate Silver at the great website, fivethirtyeight.com, who explains it thusly:
Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.
Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don’t like to do.
Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few [Friday] afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.
Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don’t move without a reason (or at least they don’t move much).
You can’t blame Republicans for looking for any, even fleeting, sign of hope. But false hope it is, and a realistic view of what’s really going on would better serve the public, even those echo-chamber consumers who only want to hear what they want to hear.
Don’t call it hope, polls are one thing, elections are another. This is not the time to be complacent.
Save that for Wednesday.
November 1st, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.
what tunes do you guys whistle when walking past the graveyard? jus wonderin
November 1st, 2008 at 3:25 pm
I wish I had your confidence on this, Alan.
We’ll know Tuesday whether the forces of Good (Obama, naturally) have triumphed over Fear (McCain) and Evil (Palin).
November 1st, 2008 at 3:30 pm
I don’t believe the polls. I tend to be pretty typical. I and people I know want a President that doesn’t have to keep explaining why he knows so many people who are radical. What is it that all these revolutionaries and criminals see in Barack Obama? Why do they all associate together? There are so many of them it’s scary, Ayers, Wright, Rezko, Kahlidi, Flagle. Then these’s Obama’s income redistribution. Socialism or whatever they want to call it, I don’t want the country to go from recession into a depression. He will have to raise taxes to pay for all the spending they are planning. Which is another thing. I don’t want more spending, I want less. Things aren’t good right now, but I don’t want them to be made worse with a bunch of government giveaway programs.
When it comes right down to it, I’m sorry but McCain is a safe bet and I know what I’m getting with him. He won’t hurt the economy any worse than it already is and what if there’s some kind of international attack like Biden says is coming. Biden and Hillary have said Obama doesn’t have the experience to deal with foreign affairs; MCain does. Plus, what if the LA Times tapes they’re talking about comes out after the election and it turns out Obama is praising the Kalidi guy, then what? I’m worried about his truthfulness, his associations, his judgement, his philosophy, and what about his willingness to say anything to get elected? Here’s a quote from the LA Times article. “In interviews with The Times, Khalidi declined to discuss specifics of private talks over the years with Obama. He did not begrudge his friend for being out of touch, or for focusing more these days on his support for Israel — a stance that Khalidi calls a requirement to win a national election in the U.S., just as wooing Chicago’s large Arab American community was important for winning local elections.” http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obamamideast10apr10,0,1780231,full.story
November 1st, 2008 at 3:38 pm
I really dont know how republicans can get outta bed everyday with all these terrorist behind every corner? It’s kinda sad in a way.. grown men and woman so scared you would think they would find courage in a book or something.
November 1st, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Well, Pollster.com shows McCain behind by more than the margin of error in Virgina, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. So even if McCain takes all the states in the “toss up” category (142+85) he still loses 311 to 227.
November 1st, 2008 at 3:59 pm
“Obama doesn’t have the experience to deal with foreign affairs; MCain does.”
Yeah, just what we need. Another guy who’s answer to everything is “Bombs away!”
Obama has a degree in international relations.
McCain has a degree in blowing stuff up.
November 1st, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Betcha didn’t think the Giants would beat the Patriots either huh? Wow, there’s an oxymoron in there.
November 1st, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Just don’t forget to vote, and tell everyone you know to vote too. I think these polls, especially given Obama’s mixed ethnicity, are extremely suspect. I hope they’re accurate, but I’m worried about people being politically correct on the phone with the polling agency.
Just go vote and ignore these polls altogether. The only poll that matters is the one on Tuesday night.
GObama
November 1st, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Dewey wins!
November 1st, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Instead of reading polls, read an interview by Milton Freidman (a nobel prize economist) about what makes an ecomony tick. Remember, taxes give government revenue, not citizens. If our country is in trouble it is because government got too involved in business (Fannie and Freddie) and overspent. They should be the ones tightening their belts as Reagan made them do and cut taxes for everyone, including business to flood the economy with money.
http://www.rightwingnews.com/interviews/friedman.php
don’t get pissy that it is right wing news, I’m not a reader of right wing news. I am however an advocate of Milton Friedman and this is just the person who interviewed him. He doesn’t propose left or right, just what works with money and banking.
Be brave and give it a read, see if it makes sense. If it doesn’t then go ahead and vote for Obama and hang on for the ride.
November 1st, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Rocky the liberal rot. How do you know Obama has a degree in international relations. haha!!! He has required his Univ. to seal his records. Now, someone said that McDonalds requires more vetting than Palin got for VP placement but, geez, Obama is running for President with a “law” degree and we don’t know if he got A’s or pass fail. Executives have to show their C.V. and trascripts when applying for jobs, why should we be left in the dark about our potential presidents credentials. 140 days in senate signing in present doesn’t count for experience. By the way, Sarah Palin has executive experience which gives her more experience than Barrack. McCain doesn’t blow things up—–he was majorly responsible for bringing peace between the U.S. and the Vietnamese people who tortured him for 5 years.
November 1st, 2008 at 5:21 pm
THE POLLS ARE RIGGED !!!!
It will be a McCain LANDSLIDE !!!!!!
I HAD IT FIRST !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The USA. [pravda] press will go broke . Then WE will have to bail them out !!!!!
Use Alans money for that please NOT mine !!!!!
November 1st, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Annette,
Milton Friedman and the Chicago School of Economics are the ones that got us into this terrible economic mess in the first place. His philosophy is being further discredited every single day.
Even in 1976 when he received his Nobel prize, he was meet with protests. Hardly surprising when a couple of years beforehand he flew to the assistance of the Chilean Dictator general Pinochet, responsible for murdering thousand of Chileans and overthrowing the elected government, to implement his extremist economic system.
His Chicago school boys have caused untold suffering and poverty in South American, with a tiny elite ring fencing most of the wealth, while the majority get poorer and poorer….sound familiar?
Amongst many of his other successes, Milton Friedman’s influence can also be attributed to the virtual bankrupting of Iceland, which has happened in the last few months.
In fact, it could easily be argued that his dogma promoting a slavish adherence to markets forces rather than the good of society has caused more suffering to more people than any other economist of the 20th Century.
The idea that our country is in trouble because of too much government interference is now so demonstrably ludicrous, that you might as well join the earth is flat club!
November 1st, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Milton Friedman is no stranger to Brits unfortunately. He was the guru whose insane theories were worshipped by that vicious, wild-eyed maniac Thatcher – theories which brought the U.K. to the brink of social, economic and political extinction. Her only solution to the problem – guess what – a fabricated war with the Argentinians over a tuft of grass in the Pacific called the Falkland Islands (remind you of something??).
November 1st, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Alan,
You might also keep in mind that Obama consistently under preformed the polls during the primary season.
Yes, you could consider that hope or false hope. But not nearly the hope that Obama has promised. False hope for change as it may turn out.
Jake,
You’d be a lit’ more creditable if you consulted a map.
November 1st, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Bernie,
The fact that the guy misspoke and said Pacific instead of Atlantic means nothing he said is credible?
Ok, by that logic since you said ‘creditable’ instead of ‘credible’, nothing you said is credible. Oh, and you said ‘preformed’ instead of ‘performed’, thus you are at a -2 credibility rating.
Seriously Bernster,
You’d be a lit’ more credible if you consulted a dictionary.
November 1st, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Pacific or Atlantic it wasn’t worth a single drop of blood being spilled (still doesn’t remind you of something?).
November 1st, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Sheer left wing socialist spew…
November 1st, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Foxy news claims that polls are fake; yet seam Hannity was jumping like a dog when Drudge reported 1-point lead for Mccain.
November 2nd, 2008 at 10:24 am