Israel May Be Right, But Not Wise
Jonathan Freedland at the Guardian has good analysis of what’s happening in Gaza. Israel has great war tactic, but not such good ones for peace. Each side believes it has the high moral ground, but getting bogged down in who is right and who is wrong won’t solve the crisis. Israel thinks it can teach the Palestinians a lesson and then get them to agree to some kind of pact to avoid further conflict.
First, even if Israel gets the quiet it wants there is every reason to believe it could have got that without resorting to war. The longtime Palestinian analyst and negotiator Hussein Agha says it would have been “straightforward: if they had lifted the blockade, the rockets would have stopped.”
Some diplomatic sources dispute this, arguing that Hamas actually saw an advantage in the sanctions regime: “opening up would have loosened Hamas’ grip,” says one. Hence the cases of Hamas firing on border crossings as they were opened. But most Palestinians insist that a relaxation of the blockade would have granted Hamas its key objective – a chance to prove it can govern effectively – and it would not have jeopardised that with rocket fire. It would have had too much to lose.
But Israel may not have wanted to give Hamas a chance to govern, thus granting it legitimacy. But any ceasefire will likely involve easing the blockade, anyway. Too bad it couldn’t have been done earlier and possibly avoided all-out war.
Second, if Israel hoped to break Hamas’ hold on Gaza it has gone precisely the wrong way about it. Its leaders have done this many times before, repeatedly misreading the way Arab societies work. They believe that if they hit Gaza (or Lebanon) hard enough, the local population will blame Hamas (or Hezbollah) for bringing tragedy upon them. But it doesn’t work like that. Instead, Gazans blame Israel – and close ranks with Hamas.
Another point Freedland make is that Israel needs relationships with moderate Arab leaders, but those leaders have been damaged politically by Israel’s moves which empowers hardliners over moderates in the eyes of many Palestinians.
And this is without mentioning the fresh supply of hatred Israel has stored up against itself, creating a new generation of Gazans bent on revenge. Every child who witnessed this week’s bombing is another recruit for the violence of the future.
A peace strategy would include ending settlement expansion and making moderates like Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas credible in the eyes of his people. Force is not the answer. It is not the quickest way to the desired result. In fact, it may prevent that result from ever taking place.
I think this latest crisis is truly sad. A terrible situation. But, I don’t believe there will ever be peace in the Middle East.
January 4th, 2009 at 11:43 am
I was watching some CNN International earlier, and Jim Clancy was speaking to some French government spokesman, representative, whatever, asking him if an Israeli insistence that any ceasefire be met with independent monitors ensuring Hamas, et al, doesn’t fire rockets into Israel would be aided by the French. I don’t recall verbatim what the response was, but I’m positive there was no definite answer either, just urgings from the spokesman that the ceasefire must come first. I’m trying not to take a hardline stance, despite personal history, but I have to wonder about the fairness of all of this on the part of much of the world and its seemingly stronger criticism of Israel.
Should the spokesman have to express a statement which his government is probably unprepaired to back up? I wouldn’t say so, but consider what Israel must think when it’s told to stop what it does, and believe a positive outcome will follow, while there may be no strongly promised effort to assist it in realizing peace with Hamas, let alone its destruction, Palestine as a whole, and the rest of the Arabic and Islamic states. Whether Israel started this or not, it seems as if it’s damned no matter the response it gives. I actually read chat room comments earlier, claiming Hamas loves Jews, and is trying to stop the rocket attacks into Israel. I don’t know if they were meant as sarcasm. They sure didn’t seem to be. If it’s true, it’s absolutely the first I ever heard either suggested, though it should be said that hatred of Israeli occupation doesn’t mean hatred of Jews.
January 4th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
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January 4th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
This a great article. One of the Israeli leaders favorite soundbites has been ‘Hamas left us no choice, we tried everything’ which is sadly untrue (as supported here).
Even if the military action is wildly successful in that say the rocket attacks cease for a while, I find it hard to believe that Palestinians will be in a rush for peace talks anytime soon. Therefore, I think by any rational judgement, Israel’s reaction, damages peace in the mid-long term.
Given this logic, it really makes you ponder the motives the Israeli government had for this response. I’m still trying to connect the dots here but it certainly seems that Tzipni and Barak are looking much stronger than Netanyahu in the upcoming election?
January 4th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
“straightforward: if they had lifted the blockade, the rockets would have stopped.”
This is just ridiculous. Israel should have lifted the blockade if Hammas stopped the rockets – not the other way around!
If you can get Israel to lift the blockade by bombing Israeli civilians, just imagine what else you can get by using the same method!
Both Alan and Freeland just don’t seem to understand the way things work in the Middle East.
January 4th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
“I find it hard to believe that Palestinians will be in a rush for peace talks anytime soon.”
And by that you mean they were in a rush for peace talks before the attack?
Israel always reached it’s hand out for peace, only to be cut off by the Palestinian terrorists. Whenever an offer was made, the Palestinians used violence to try and get even more.
In 2000, P.M. Barak offered Arafat 98% of the Palestinian territorial demands. Arafat wanted more, and buses started blowing up in Tel Aviv.
In 2005 Israel cleared all civilian and military presence out of Gaza. Hammas wanted more, and started shooting rockets at Israeli cities.
I think maybe, just maybe, Israel finally decided to use their own methods against them.
January 4th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Dvir,
For a start the rocket attacks didn’t begin in 2005 nor to be fair did they begin with the blockade. They have been occurring since at least 2001. Arafat I would concede didn’t seem to be really committed to peace and never trusted Israel so fair point there.
However, the fact is that Palestinians voted in Hamas which tells you that Hamas spoke for a large part of the populace. Unfortunately, Israel (and the US) chose to exclude them from any peace talks because they are classified as terrorists.
I like to use Northern Ireland as a good analogy here, if the British/Irish had excluded Sinn Fein from peace negotiations then any chance of peace would be impossible. It is the same lesson here..
True, its hard when Hamas don’t even recognise Israel’s right to exist (or Sinn Fein’s refusal to accept NI..) but if you listen carefully to all their rhetoric over the past couple of years, you will see there are such things as moderate voices within Hamas and they have discussed seeking peace with Israel, not just to destroy it. Unfortunately, those moderates have no chance when Israel tries to flex its muscles against the Gazans as it has done so with the blockade and now this military response.
To be clear, I don’t condone Hamas and I don’t condone violence. I do think the current Israeli strategy though is fatally flawed and ignores lessons of history.
January 4th, 2009 at 6:38 pm
This mess will never end!
January 4th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Isn’t it interesting that Israeli author, Amos Oz, said,
“Both parties, in two different ways, are victims of Christian Europe: the Arabs through colonialism, imperialism, oppression and exploitation, while the Jews have been the victims of discrimination, pogroms, expulsions and, ultimately, mass murder.”
Let’s not forget, The greatest atrocity committed against the Jewish people was NOT a the hands of the Arabs.
Good night Everybody!
January 4th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Lee,
“For a start the rocket attacks didn’t begin in 2005 nor to be fair did they begin with the blockade.”
The rockets did start in 2001, but got even worse after Israel cleared Gaza. They weren’t the reason for the blockade? Where did you get this from? Of course they were the reason for the blockade. The only reason.
You’re saying the Palestinians votes for Hammas as if there was democracy in Gaza – there isn’t. There is no freedom of press and no freedom of speech – how can the population make a wise vote? Moreover, since Hammas rose to power, it is illegal to support Fatah in Gaza.
Hammas is a bloodthirsty terrorist organization. If they manage to force their terms on Israel using violence, they will never stop.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:39 am
Dvir,
Call me a leftist cynic if you like but the fact that the blockade happened shortly after Hamas was voted into power seems a big clue to me. Trying to stem the flow of munitions etc into Gaza was one motive but I’m fairly sure given the timing, it was primarily a message that if you support Hamas, bad things will happen to you..
With this blockade they could have just searched everything going through the crossings and let all non-weapons through but they didn’t.. heck they forced power cuts and wouldn’t even allow through everyday necessities. Not to mention the fact that few people are/were allowed in or out of Gaza.. So sorry, you are wrong about your glorious Israel and they didn’t do it ‘just to stop the rocket attacks’.
Also, the vote for Hamas was as fair as the vote for Fatah.. I’m sorry you can’t see it that way but based on available evidence I don’t see that Palestinians secretly wanted to vote for Fatah but were forced to vote Hamas.. Anyway, the bottom line is that Hamas had/has extensive political support amongst the Palestinians and ignoring that was a big mistake in trying achieve peace.
Finally, “If they manage to force their terms on Israel using violence, they will never stop” is a flawed assumption and ignores history. Consider ETA (Spain) or the IRA (Northern Ireland). In both cases, the Spanish and British governments did not resort to using the might of their armed forces to kill ordinary Basque or Catholic citizens.
Instead, they took the high ground, vowed to bring the perpetrators of the crimes to justice (which they did in many cases) and sought peace without resorting to lowering themselves to the terrorists level, which I’m afraid is what Israel has done.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:07 am
LEE,
I won’t call you a leftist cynic but I still think that you don’t fully realize that things work different in the Middle East.
“the fact that the blockade happened shortly after Hamas was voted into power seems a big clue to me.”
How so? When Israel pulled out from Gaza in August 2005, it clearly stated that any more rockets at Israeli cities will not be tolerated. Obviously they had to wait till the result of the elections before taking a decision about how to react.
When Hammas took over Gaza, the rockets at Israeli cities became official Palestinian policy. You certainly cannot expect the Israeli government to keep normal supply of food and electricity to a terrorist organization who intentionally aims at your civilians?
Israel has always stated that once the attacks on Israeli civilians will stop, the blockade will be removed. That was the case even during the “cease-fire”.
“Also, the vote for Hamas was as fair as the vote for Fatah.”
I never said people were forced to vote Hammas at gun point. But Democracy, as you probably know, doesn’t consist solely of dropping a note in a box. You can’t say the elections were legit when there was no free press that can provide information and criticism about the competing parties to the people. It was blind voting.
“In both cases, the Spanish and British governments did not resort to using the might of their armed forces to kill ordinary Basque or Catholic citizens.”
Admittedly, I never studied the conflicts you mentioned here, and their resolve. But it sounds here like you suggest that that Israel is using it’s armed forces to intentionally kill ordinary civilians. That’s ridiculous. Civilians are not and never were the target of military attacks. Not only that, but civilians living close to military targets are being warned by phone calls to clear the area.
It seems that you are the one that ignores the history of the conflict that we’re discussing. Israel has reached out for peace numerous times, while Palestinians responded with even more terrorism. Most recent examples would be 1993, 2001 and even the latest “cease-fire”.
“…resorting to lowering themselves to the terrorists level, which I’m afraid is what Israel has done.”
The terrorists’ level was to send suicide bombers to explode in buses, malls, restaurants and hotels, in a clear attempt to kill as many civilians as possible. To send armed terrorists into Israeli cities, so they get into civilian houses and shoot mothers in front of their children. Lee, I seriously don’t think what Israel is doing in Gaza can be considered as lowering that low.
January 5th, 2009 at 8:29 am
Dvir,
A few points:
It’s hard to prove conclusively that the blockade was done to punish the people for voting Hamas but you have to ask why they suddenly decided to take that action after several years of bombing. It’s the timing..
You state they ‘obviously’ had to wait for the election but since rocket attacks had been occurring during Fatah’s administration, how can the election have mattered?
Then there is your statement “You certainly cannot expect the Israeli government to keep normal supply of food and electricity to a terrorist organization who intentionally aims at your civilians?”
This gets to the crux of the matter which is that all Gazan’s are being punished for the crimes of Hamas. This is not just ‘unfair’ its frankly despicable and is not what how a civilised nation should behave. We are talking about over a million human beings, forced to live in a large open prison.
“But it sounds here like you suggest that that Israel is using it’s armed forces to intentionally kill ordinary civilians. That’s ridiculous”
No, not quite.. What I am stating is that Israel doesn’t care if civilians get in the way of its targets. They aren’t going to hold fire if children or other innocent people happen to be in the way or living next door to their Hamas target. Don’t get me wrong, its deplorable that Hamas use human shields in this way by placing caches in those locations but it doesn’t excuse Israel ignoring these ’shields’ anyway.
I have studied the Israel/Palestinian conflict a fair amount because it has always fascinated me. In fact I grew up pro-Israel. Then I started researching how Israel came into being and the wars in 1967, 1973 , 1982 etc and the more I’ve looked at the evidence, I certainly can see where a lot of the arab anger and hatred is coming from.
I’m just being honest, I don’t believe I have any predisposed bias here, I’m just forming my opinion based on what I see, read and hear from as many different sources as possible.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Lee,
First of all, I respect your opinions and knowledge, and didn’t mean to suggest otherwise.
“You state they ‘obviously’ had to wait for the election but since rocket attacks had been occurring during Fatah’s administration, how can the election have mattered?”
You don’t seem to realize the importance that the Gaza disengagement had on the Israeli side. In August 2005, for the first time in 40 years, Israel pulled out all the armed forces out of Gaza, and relocated all the civilians that lived there, thousands of families. This was done by a leadership that realized how immoral the situation was, and a public that wants to end the conflict.
Israel then waited to see the results of the election before taking any strategic decision. Don’t you think there’s a substantial difference between attacks on civilians done by a terrorist organization, and those done by the elected government?
Don’t you think it was Hammas who punished the Palestinian civilians by not stopping the attacks on Israeli cities? The Fatah was at least willing to negotiate peace with Israel, Hamas didn’t even recognize it’s right to exist. Not to mention the painfully simple equation of “stop attacking us = get all the supplies you need”.
To me the situation looks like this: Hammas is attacking cities in Israel, in an open attempt to kill civilians. The attacks take place from within dense civilian population areas, while mosques and schools are being used as armories. The Palestinians refuse to negotiate. When a cease-fire is agreed upon, they constantly break it. Inside Gaza they prevent any attempt of creating an opposition. What other way out of this do you suggest? Even when finally, after 8 years of rockets Israel decides to attack, civilians are being warned beforehand so that they can evacuate the area.
From my point of view, Hammas is to blame for the suffering of his people, and moderate Arab leaders fully agree with this, even without saying it directly.
I think I failed to mention that in the beginning of our debate: I’m Israeli, and consider myself liberal. I vote Meretz, which is on the left side of the political map in Israel, and running a campaign right now calling to stop the operation.
Just as you, studying Israel’s history, it was hard for me to realize Israel has done many wrong in it’s history, specifically in the wars that you mentioned. I think terrible mistakes have been made, and can see as well where the anger and hatred is coming from.
Nevertheless, the current Israel administration has inherited the poor results of the decisions made in the past. Israel is now “stuck” with Gaza – Egypt doesn’t want it back, just like the peace agreement with Jordan didn’t include the west bank, and the Palestinians refused several peace offers made by Israeli leaders.
While the history of the conflict is important, I believe it is more relevant to inspect the behavior of each side since 1993.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:39 am
I appreciate the comments and clarification of your position.
I guess there are some areas where we will just have to ‘agree to disagree’ such as the motivation for the blockade and the willingness of the ‘Palestinians’ to negotiate. I think its even debatable whether Hamas’s motives for the rocket attacks are just to kill as many Israeli’s as possible as they haven’t been very ’successful’. However, I’m not sure and just speculating, and its a terrible tactic nonetheless.
I agree with several of your other comments such as mistakes being made in the past, the fact that Arafat had a chance to achieve peace and blew it.
However, let me answer your comment “What other way out of this do you suggest?”
If I was the Israeli PM and didn’t have to worry about short-term political power, I would do this:
1) Withdraw from Gaza
2) Remove the blockade and open up all the crossings although having some limited border operation to search for any weapons.
3) Ban illegal settlements (i.e per the UN).
4) Tear down the barrier wall – have to admit I’m conflicted on this as it does appear to have worked well against suicide bombers but it also smacks of a land-grab.
5) Invest seriously in Palestinian infrastructure, build hospitals, schools, housing starting in the Fatah controlled West-Bank. Allow Gaza to join this program once violence originating from there against Israel goes down to a suitable level.
6) Demand an end to all suicide bombings and rocket attacks with cooperation from Palestinians in bringing organisers/perpetrators to justice. If cooperation is insufficient then reserve the right to conduct special forces incursions to extract criminals where necessary.
7) Either sit down and negotiate with Hamas/Fatah or wait a while to see how ordinary Palestinians respond to being given a more affluent/normal life and wait for support for terrorism to wane (as logically it should).
If Israel adopted this kind of approach, I believe that eventually you would get to a similar point you had with Barak/Arafat but this time with a Palestinian leader whom would say yes.
The alternative seems to be to introduce more and more restrictions on Gazan/Palestinian life, more military responses with significant collateral damage and think by blaming this on Hamas/Al-Aqsa-Brigade/whomever that somehow you will eventually be in a scenario to achieve peace. I’m sorry but I’m not convinced.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:50 am