Blue Is The New Red
Nate Silver at Five Thirty-Eight cites a new Gallup poll that shows that just five states, representing 2% of the population, “have statistically significant pluralities of adults identifying themselves as Republicans.”
These are the “Mormon Belt” states of Utah, Idaho and Wyoming, plus Nebraska, plus Alaska. By contrast, 35 states are plurality Democratic, and 10 states are too close to call.
Now then for a couple of caveats. Firstly, Gallup’s numbers consist of interviews with all adults — not registered voters, and certainly not likely voters. Depending on the particular application that we’re using this data for, that may be helpful or unhelpful. What this perhaps indicates, however, is that even after all the millions of new voters that the Democrats registered and brought to the polls in 2008, there are still probably some marginal gains to be had, particularly in areas like the deep South that the Obama campaign did not really concentrate in.
The upside is high, especially in local elections, where regional differences will have less affect on results. But there are often shifts to the non-incumbent party, and expect fights on redistricting in 2010.Click here for reuse options!
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