Posted by | July 7, 2010 12:24 | Filed under: Top Stories

by Stuart Shapiro

The punditocracy continually bemoans the Democratic prospects in November. But what if I told you that there is more of a chance that the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate than that the Republicans take a majority? Nate Silver’s latest analysis projects exactly that.

If Democrats somehow got a wind at their backs, they have enough offensive opportunities to take advantage of it. Suppose on the other hand that the Democrats got a 3-point boost nationally (or the current average of polls is biased 3 points against them, which is effectively the same thing). In that case, they would have about a 27 percent chance of actually regaining a 60-seat majority, and closer to a 40 percent chance if they could persuade Charlie Crist to caucus with them. There’s no particular reason to think that this will happen, however, particularly with economic momentum being rather tepid.

Now keep in mind that the most likely outcome is 54-55 Democratic seats. Add Charlie Crist from Florida and Delaware’s Mike Castle, who would immediately be the most liberal Republicans in the Senate, and a 4-5 seat loss would be far from the disaster many are projecting. We can thank such wonderful folks as Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio for the improved outlook.

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By: Alan

Alan Colmes is the publisher of Liberaland.