Senate Update: And Not A Good One
There are few (if any) analysts I trust more than Nate Silver who recently migrated from his own blog to the New York Times. His newest estimate has the Democrats losing between 6 and 7 seats with a 20% chance that the GOP takes over the Senate.
The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them. In addition, there is an 11 percent chance that Democrats will lose a total of nine seats, which would leave them with 50 votes, making them vulnerable to a defection to the Republican Party by a centrist like Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut or Ben Nelson of Nebraska.
My gut reaction (which is in no way as reliable as Silver’s models) is that the Democrats have better chances than he estimates in Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Delaware. He has all three of these races as having a 69% chance or better of swinging to Republicans. I also think that Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray are safer than the slightly over 50% chance he gives them. Whether this is wishful thinking or a logical feeling that the next few months can’t possibly be as bad as the last few for the Democrats, I’m not sure.Click here for reuse options!
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