Yale Economist Models 2012 Election And Obama Wins
Yale Economist Ray C. Fair has done the statistical modeling, and the results show that President Obama is likely a shoo-in for reelection (h/t Taegan Goddard). It boils down to what the economy will look like as the next presidential election approaches.
“The model certainly suggests that if the economy is good and improving as an election approaches, it’s very difficult to defeat an incumbent president,” he said. At the root of his conclusion is an economic forecast: he expects a significant improvement in the American economy by 2012.
While growth is relatively weak today, prices in financial markets — even if not the housing market — have already rebounded from their levels at the nadir of the financial crisis. Assuming relative stability over the next year or two, the effect of those rebounds — which ought to induce consumers and businesses to spend and invest more — should be feeding into the overall economy, he said.
Another important factor in his forecast, he said, is the assumption that “stimulative fiscal and monetary policies will continue.”
The model is, of course, imperfect, Fair acknowledged, as other factors could come into play. However, the end of the Obama presidency as predicted by many of his detractors is, to quote Mark Twain, “greatly exaggerated.”Click here for reuse options!
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