Predictions For New Hampshire (Or The Races For Second And Fourth)
The New Hampshire primary comes bereft of much of the drama that surrounded the Iowa caucuses. Governor Romney is nearly a lock to win (Nate Silver’s model gives him a 98% chance). Governor Perry has abandoned the state and will come in sixth (his performance after this depends on Republicans telling him where the next debate is). That leaves Rep. Paul and Gov. Huntsman to race for second and Sen. Santorum and Speaker Gingrich to race for fourth. Still, after picking Paul to win the Iowa Caucuses last week, I could use an easy week.
- Romney 34 % Paul 21% Huntsman 20% Gingrich 12% Santorum 9% Perry 4%.
- Romney claims the day is a big win. Gingrich says it is a big loss for Romney because he didn’t reach Gingrich’s made up threshold of 40%. The truth is that the day is not terribly consequential.
- No one drops out but next week South Carolina will claim two victims.
If you think the campaign has been nasty so far, it is nothing compared to what the next ten days will bring.Click here for reuse options!
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