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A Super Tuesday — But For Whom?

by Stuart Shapiro

Super Tuesday is upon us and so is Republican primary exhaustion.  Gone are the carefree days when Governor Rick Perry was forgetting agencies and Herman Cain was fighting off daily allegations of sexual harassment.  Now it is all about delegate accumulation.  And Nate Silver thinks it could be a good day for Governor Romney as shown in the chart above.

My guess is that Romney wins the big prize of the night, Ohio, as well as Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, and Idaho.  Senator Santorum wins Tennessee and Oklahoma while Speaker Gingrich wins his home state of Georgia.  And this becomes the template for the rest of the race.  Romney wins enough to pad his delegate lead and make his eventual nomination inevitable.  He loses enough to keep doubts about him alive.  And a race that was once exciting and appalling, becomes just appalling.

About Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels. Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush.


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