Why The Jobs Report Won’t Change The Presidential Race
It’s the status quo, but not a win or loss for either side.
What the political science models tell us is that those economic circumstances point to a close race, with perhaps a slight advantage for the president (depending on which model you look at). Which in turn means that campaign-level factors, from the quality and frequency of ads to get-out-the-vote operations to, yes, the effects of the conventions, could all be important. The bottom line of today’s jobs report is mainly just to keep that dynamic in place.