Nate Silver Gives Romney A 38.9% Chance; Intrade At 38.5%
Other odds-makers have Romney between 30-35%.
Were there any bright spots at all for President Obama in Friday’s data? He did gain ground in two national tracking polls, from Ipsos and Investor’s Business Daily, although he lost ground in two others, from Gallup and Rasmussen Reports.
The Ipsos poll is interesting in that it was the only one to include a substantive number of interviews after the vice-presidential debate on Thursday night. (Ipsos conducts some of its online sampling late in the evening and early the next morning.) That poll showed Mr. Romney’s national lead narrowing to one point from three.
Still, the clear majority of its interviews preceded the vice-presidential debate. It will take a couple of days to determine whether it had any impact on the polls.
The only really good news for Democrats is that Mr. Obama had built up a large enough cushion that he could withstand a lot of damage without becoming the underdog.