Can The Gallup Poll Be Right And 18 Others Be Wrong?
Conservatives said all the polls were wrong when they all had President Obama surging. Now they’re in love with Gallup. But why is the Gallup poll an outlier?
There are many possible reasons for variations. Gallup’s tracking poll relies on a seven-day rolling average, so it may still be registering a surge that Romney gained after his strong debate showing on October 3.
Several experts suggested that there may be something in the way the Gallup telephone survey is conducted that makes it more likely to translate a surge in enthusiasm for a candidate into an uptick in poll support, leading to wider swings in the final months before election day.
And there is a growing recognition in the industry that telephone-based surveys are becoming less reliable. As mobile phone use increases, a traditional home-phone survey will miss large chunks of the population, especially younger people.