Follow The Money To See Who Wins The Election
After the third debate, money moved through betting markets back to President Obama.
“Obama has 3 percent more chance of winning the election than he did before Monday’s debate,” said Leighton Vaughan Williams, a professor of economics and finance at Nottingham Business School and director of the school’s Betting Research Unit and Political Forecasting Unit.
Vaughan Williams has spent 12 years studying how well efficient betting markets predict outcomes of U.S. elections, staring with the Bush vs. Gore election in 2000. His research has demonstrated that when millions of dollars are wagered on events such as elections, the odds offered by betting websites tend to be far more accurate real-time forecasters of election outcomes than political pundits or public opinion polls…
Following the third debate, Vaughan Williams put Obama’s chance of winning on Nov. 6 at 68 to 70 percent — up from 65 percent before the debate.