Obama On Track To Victory
Greg Sargent shows how state polling averages comport with the Obama campaign’s view of the race.
The picture these averages give us is that Obama has a small lead in four major battlegrounds — more than enough to put Obama past 270, if he wins them — while the race is tighter in two battlegrounds where Romney leads. Romney does have a sizable lead in North Carolina. What about Colorado? Two averages show Obama with a slight edge; one puts Romney up. So let’s call it a tie. New Hampshire is essentially tied in the aggregate of the averages, too.
For the sake of argument, let’s give the tied states to Romney. Here’s the basic state of things: If you give Romney all the states where he is leading or tied in the averages — Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire — he is still short of 270. Meanwhile, if you give Obama just the states where he leads in the averages, he wins reelection.