Obama On Track To Victory

By Alan with comments October 27, 2012 14:27

Greg Sargent shows how state polling averages comport with the Obama campaign’s view of the race.

The picture these averages give us is that Obama has a small lead in four major battlegrounds — more than enough to put Obama past 270, if he wins them — while the race is tighter in two battlegrounds where Romney leads. Romney does have a sizable lead in North Carolina. What about Colorado? Two averages show Obama with a slight edge; one puts Romney up. So let’s call it a tie. New Hampshire is essentially tied in the aggregate of the averages, too.

For the sake of argument, let’s give the tied states to Romney. Here’s the basic state of things: If you give Romney all the states where he is leading or tied in the averages — Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire — he is still short of 270. Meanwhile, if you give Obama just the states where he leads in the averages, he wins reelection.