Romney Vs. 538
That’s both the number of electoral votes, and the Nate Silver blog that doesn’t look favarable for him.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog runs dozens of polls through a model that weights and averages them, and then spits out a daily forecast determining the likely outcome of the race. Silver has consistently identified Mitt Romney as a serious underdog, and his projection did not swing as dramatically as did the conventional wisdom after the first presidential debate in Denver: his latest projection gives the Republican just a 26.4 percent chance of winning.
The model’s stubborn insistence on a likely Obama victory has earned Silver the wrath of conservatives, who accuse him of shoddy methodology at best, and sinister Obama-boosting at worst.
But while Silver says it’s likely the president will win, he says, “the odds are, also, that Nov. 6 will be a long night.”