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Nate Silver: Republicans Have 60% Chance Of Winning Senate

If Silver said the opposite, he’d be accused of being a liberal, which he is. But Silver never let his own views get in the way of his predictions.

“Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error,” Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight on Monday…

Republicans need to win a net of 6 seats in the Nov. 4 elections order to retake the majority. The fundamentals favor them in several key contests.

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Alan Colmes is the publisher of Liberaland.

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  • http://www.alan.com/author/eric-trommater/ Eric Trommater

    Basically if all the elections go chalk we would need wins in both Kentucky and Georgia to to be able to keep a 50/50 Senate and allow Joe Biden to be the tie breaker. This is not even allowing for any upsets and assumes we win places like MI and MN which are not going to be gimmes. It’s too early to say it’s all doom and gloom but it in poker terms we are drawing into an inside straight with all but one face card in the flop.

    • http://themolotovcocktail.com/volume-5/vol-5-issue-6/developing-story/ fantagor

      Don’t worry. Republicans will bring up the miracle of rape babies and legitimate rape and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If the GOP can do it in 2010 and 2012, both years they were heavily favored to retake the Senate, they can do it in 2014.

      • http://www.alan.com/author/eric-trommater/ Eric Trommater

        “Hope is a thing with feathers,” Emily Dickenson.

        • http://themolotovcocktail.com/volume-5/vol-5-issue-6/developing-story/ fantagor

          “Two data points make a trend, and I see a trend forming.”

          – Me

    • LiberalMD

      This is potentially bad news for those who are not old white men(I may need to get a sex change operation, as I can’t change my age or race and I don’t want to be confused with a Republican). Let this be a calling to all to the non-old white men to get to the polls in November and vote for your best interests.

      There is some glimmer of hope: I don’t find anywhere in his calculations allowances for the “Akin phenomenon”.

  • MARK-CHRISTIAN SORRELL

    I’m emotionally invested in a Republican victory come Nov. 4th., heavily invested. Yet, being an elderly realist I know full well that a Republican controlled Senate will not serve my Conservative Cause. A Senate controlled by the likes of McConnell and McCain, Coburn and Collins and such will be nothing more than a Liberal-Light Senate.

    • http://www.the-trades.com R.J. Carter

      I’m also emotionally invested in Republicans taking the Senate. Now we just need to find some Republicans.